humus arbores: iOS 6: How many betas will there be?

iOS 6: How many betas will there be?

This year, like every year, one of the most common questions iMore's being asked is -- how many betas will the be before iOS 6 becomes available to the general public?

At WWDC 2012, when Apple announced iOS 6 and released the first beta, they also announced that iOS 6 would ship sometime this fall. (Presumably a couple of days before the next generation iPhone 5 ships. That gives us a window roughly spanning from September to November. We likely won't find out the exact date until the iPhone 5 event, which also hasn't been announced or scheduled yet, but will also likely be in the fall.

If we look to history for clues:

iPhone OS 2.0 had 8 betas starting March 6, 2008, and was released on July 11, 2008
iPhone OS 3.0 had 5 betas starting March 17, 2009, and was released on June 17, 2009
iOS 4 had 4 betas starting on April 8, 2010 and was released as iOS 4 on June 21, 2010
iOS 5 had 7 betas starting on June 6, and was released on October 12, 2011

Here's the full beta schedule from last year's iOS 5 release:

Beta 1 was released on Friday, June 5
Beta 2 was released three weeks later on Friday, June 24
Beta 3 was released over two weeks later on Monday, July 11
Beta 4 was released under two weeks later on Friday, July 22
Beta 5 was released two weeks later on Saturday, August 6,
Beta 6 was released two weeks later on Friday, August 19
Beta 7 was released a week and a half later on Wednesday, August 31
GM was released almost seven weeks later on Tuesday, October 4
Final was released a week later on Wednesday, October 12

Here's the beta schedule to date for this year's iOS 6 release:

Beta 1 was released on Monday, June 11
Beta 2 was released two weeks later on Monday, June 25
Beta 3 was released three week later on Monday, July 16

If Apple sticks closely to the every-two-weeks pattern from here on out, and the same release schedule as last year, there's enough time for 8 betas by the end of September, a Gold Master (GM) in early October at the iPhone 5 event, and a release in early/mid October when the iPhone 5 ships.

If any of the betas take longer than 2 weeks, or if the period between the final beta and the GM seed is extended like last year, the 6 or 7 betas between now and then seems more reasonable.

Either way, given Apple's secrecy, the only sound strategy for iOS betas is to expect them when you see them.